Matt Forney
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The Hungarian Election: What is the Future of the Visegrád Group?

NOTE: This is the eighth of several articles I am writing to promote my fundraiser to cover the Hungarian election starting this month. To find out more about the fundraiser and how you can help, click here.

Part of the attention that Hungary gets on the national stage is due to its membership in the Visegrád Group (also known as the Visegrád Four), a political and cultural alliance between it, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Due to the V4’s close cooperation and growing economic clout, they have been a consistent thorn in the European Union’s efforts to destroy national sovereignty and flood member states with non-white illegals.

As I mentioned in the last post, Hungary lacks the population or physical size to become a world power, so it must guarantee its safety through membership in transnational alliances and associations such as the E.U., NATO, and the Visegrád Group. With that in mind, I’d like to speculate on possible futures of the V4 in an increasingly divided and besieged Europe.

1. The Visegrád Group is brought to heel by the E.U.

This is the preferred scenario of the globalists and the worst possible outcome. In this vision, the Visegrád states are either forced to concede to the E.U.’s migrant relocation schemes and other diktats or end up electing governments who willingly comply with them. Some commentators such as Anatoly Karlin and Roosh have already noted how Poland and other Central European states seem to be becoming more leftist and degenerate, on the basis that integration into Europe carries with it Euro-American attitudes on homosexuality and race-mixing.

This scenario is unlikely but not impossible. As I’ve already pointed out, Viktor Orbán is currently unassailable in Hungary; the most recent poll purportedly showing Fidesz at a “one-year low” in support still gives them a 30-point lead over Jobbik, their nearest competitor. The governing Law and Justice party in Poland has consistently enjoyed large leads since it was elected in 2015, and the Czech Republic recently elected a nationalist party led by a billionaire who is being investigated for subsidy fraud. The Czechs also reelected a nationalist president whose main opponent was an SJW-endorsed academic who cried about refugees and climate change.

Having said this, there are worrying storm clouds on the horizon. The Visegrád Four’s dedication to European integration may prove their undoing, as they may end up valuing E.U. membership over national survival should they be forced to choose between the two. Moreover, increasing prosperity in these countries may end up presaging a left-wing revival, a la r/K selection theory. Young Poles and Hungarians, divorced from the privations of Cold War communism and protected from Muslim rapefugees by the border wall, may turn their attention towards anal sex and tattoos. I’m already seeing signs of this in Budapest, as women here are starting to get tattoos (hybrid bar/cafe/tattoo parlors are popular for some reason) and adopt American-like smartphone and dating habits.

At present, Slovakia is the weak link in the Visegrád chain, a pressure point the E.U. might use to undermine the unity of the four countries. Slovakia is the only V4 nation to have adopted the euro, and Prime Minister Robert Fico is a cuck who has caved to E.U. demands on migrant quotas and other issues. Ultimately, while I believe the V4 will be able to triumph over the encroachment of the globalists, nothing is guaranteed.

2. The V4 is able to reform the E.U. into a more decentralized, nationalist organization.

This is the stated goal of Orbán and other V4 leaders, who seek to preserve the European Union’s positive aspects (the customs union, open borders, and mutual defense) while removing its negative ones. Hope comes from the fact that similarly aligned parties are gaining ground in Western Europe: Austria is now governed by a nationalist, right-wing coalition, while in Italy, Euroskeptic and right-wing parties have won a two-thirds majority in yesterday’s elections.

The biggest problem with this is that while the Southern and Eastern European nations are becoming more nationalist and anti-migrant, the Northern and Western European nations are becoming more globalist. France will be governed by Emmanuel Macron and his neoliberal cronies through 2022 at the earliest, while in Germany, Angela Merkel recently re-formed her grand coalition with the left-wing SPD. The Netherlands is also ruled by a globalist coalition, while upcoming elections in Sweden are unlikely to shift the balance of power.

As its member states become more polarized, the E.U. will be gripped by the same paralysis that afflicts U.S. politics. When the two sides of the political spectrum have nothing in common—indeed, don’t even share the same principles—there can be no consensus or compromise. Unless nationalist parties can gain ground in France and Germany, the two leading nations of the European Union, reforming the E.U. is impossible and its collapse is inevitable.

3. The E.U. collapses and the V4 falls under Russian control.

This is the hysterical fever dream of neocons, leftists, and kooks. Much of the fear and hatred of European nationalist parties comes from the spurious claim that they are supported by Russia: for example, Viktor Orbán is repeatedly accused of being Vladimir Putin’s stooge. In this fantasy scenario, Russia essentially resumes its position in the Cold War, holding half of Europe in thrall.

While the Russians would no doubt love to conquer Europe—and they are almost certainly trying to manipulate the current environment for their own benefit—Russia is in no position to reclaim the Soviet Union’s mantle. As I mentioned in the last article, Russia is grappling with serious economic and social problems that prevent it from projecting any real power. While Putin has done an admirable job in pulling Russia back from the horrors of the 1990’s, he still has a long way to go before the country can fully recover. Moreover, the V4 leadership distinctly remembers life under Russian domination and has no desire to return to it.

The fact that Russia was and is incapable of retaining control over Ukraine—a much weaker state that holds special significance in the Russian psyche—shows that Putin lacks the ability to assert dominance over much stronger and more culturally dissimilar states like Hungary and Poland. Russia could conceivably regain lost ground with the aid of China, but the best it can hope for is being the Britain to China’s U.S.: a dying empire aligning itself with a rising one.

4. The E.U. collapses and the Visegrád Four emerges as a new power bloc.

This is the best scenario. Indeed, the groundwork for it is already being laid through the Three Seas Initiative, a forum designed to bring together Eastern European countries to develop common military and economic strategies. In addition to the V4 states, the Three Seas Initiative also includes the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, and Bulgaria.

The Three Seas Initiative is in many ways a revival of Intermarium (Międzymorze), a proposed federation between Central and Eastern European states after World War I. Conceived by Józef Piłsudski, it was designed to solve the perennial problem of Eastern Europe being dominated by the Germans and Russians by joining all of the newly independent Eastern European states into a grand alliance. The project failed due to the outcome of the Polish-Soviet War as well as poor relations between most potential member states, but in the face of E.U. instability and the migrant crisis, it could succeed.

In order for the V4/Three Seas Initiative to establish themselves as a new power bloc, they need to win over Belarus and Ukraine, the two major countries of the original Intermarium plan that are not currently part of the Initiative. Seizing these countries (as well as Moldova) would isolate Russia, which was one of the goals of Intermarium. Ukraine is a potential member due to Euromaidan, but it is currently busy sabotaging its chances at E.U./V4 integration by antagonizing Poland and Hungary. Winning over Belarus will be difficult but not impossible, as Alexander Lukashenko has been trying to distance himself from Russia, giving speeches in Belarusian and loosening travel restrictions on E.U. and U.S. nationals.

Ultimately, provided that Orbán and the other Visegrád Group leaders can keep their wits about them, they are well-positioned to play a major role in the future of Europe. By resisting diversity and degeneracy, Poland, Hungary, and the other V4 states will be able to maintain social and political cohesion as the West and Russia slip into anarchy and decay.

Read Next: The Hungarian Election: Dear Lord, Please Destroy the European Union…But Not Yet